The most significant development for the heterojunction industry in 2023 has been the breakthrough in reducing silver usage, marking a critical step in cost reduction and enhancing the sector's competitiveness. The successful validation of heterojunction module applications in domestic power plants is a positive indicator, although manufacturers' profitability has not yet fully stabilized.
In June 2024, the first HJT+THL cell was produced at Tongwei's Global Innovation and R&D Center, with breakthroughs in gigawatt-scale copper interconnections achieved during pilot tests. The highest power output for Dongfang Sunrise's heterojunction solar module reached 767.38 Wp, with a module conversion efficiency of 24.70%, setting a new record.
Amid rising silver prices, technologies like silver-coated copper paste, 0BB technology, and stencil printing have become more significant. These advancements not only reduce silver consumption in HJT batteries but also enhance conversion efficiency, further improving the cost-effectiveness of HJT technology.
Demand for heterojunction components has increased significantly, as evidenced by large-scale bidding from domestic power plants and overseas orders. With component shipments reaching 8-10 GW in 2023, market demand for heterojunction technology is solidifying.
In 2024, improving heterojunction efficiency has become more urgent than cost reduction, especially as TOPCon technology rapidly advances. Heterojunction technology must optimize to achieve approximately 30 watts of power leadership.
Cost reduction efforts have shifted focus to reducing or eliminating silver usage in silver paste. Even in an environment of industry-wide losses, we expect heterojunction products to demonstrate profitability, maintaining a premium and cost advantage over TOPCon products. Market attention is also on the expansion trends of leading manufacturers, which will influence the sector's investment pace.
Two key cost-related changes have recently occurred: the reduction in silver content of paste and lower processing fees for low-temperature silver paste. Technological breakthroughs, particularly from overseas paste manufacturer KE, have resulted in the successful launch of 30% silver content paste, significantly reducing costs. Additionally, combining 0BB technology with 30% silver paste has given heterojunction technology an advantage in low silver consumption, making it more resilient to silver price fluctuations.
Despite rising silver prices increasing the cost of heterojunction technology, its core competitiveness lies in its low silver consumption, decoupling its cost from silver price fluctuations. However, power improvements remain crucial for the technology's development. Currently, heterojunction technology is only about 10 watts ahead of TOPCon for mainstream products in the 210 version.
In the next 2-3 quarters, heterojunction power improvements are expected to surpass TOPCon, driven by advancements in PVD coating, secondary flocking, and stencil printing technology. These innovations are anticipated to improve cell efficiency by 0.6-0.7%, translating to about 15 watts of power improvement in modules. Stencil printing alone is expected to contribute 0.3% efficiency improvement by optimizing silver-clad copper pastes.
Translucent film technology is another important driver. As more manufacturers enter the translucent film market, its price/performance ratio has improved, and costs have dropped, potentially making it a standard configuration within the year. Combined with battery enhancements, the power advantage of heterojunction over TOPCon is expected to be more than 4% for the 210 version and about 30 watts for the 20 version by the end of 2024.
A 2% to 5% power lead in a similar technology refresh cycle can propel a technology from emerging to mainstream. The 30-watt difference, based on historical patterns of technology iteration, is significant. For example, TOPCon's power advantage over PERC increased from 10-15 watts (2%) in late 2022 to 30 watts (5%) by the end of 2023, making TOPCon the dominant technology.
A 4% power lead could spur a new round of heterojunction expansion. TOPCon's latest announcements show openness to both silver-coated and copper-plated technologies, with improvements in production efficiency, non-silicon costs, and equipment investment. If the operational efficiency and cost control of the latest GW line meet expectations, heterojunction technology will gain stronger cost and scale advantages.
Attention should focus on the commercialization of stencil printing technology, efficiency improvements, and capacity utilization of key manufacturers like Orient Sunrise and Chain Rise Technology. The financial performance of major manufacturers in the third quarter will be an important indicator of the success of heterojunction technology commercialization.
